Photo : Messenger
The government has projected the daily demand for electricity in the upcoming peak season at 17,800MW, but meeting this will be a big challenge amid the ongoing dollar crisis as expensive fuel has to be imported to generate this huge amount of power.
According to the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), the projected daily demand for irrigation alone is 2,590MW in April and 2,590MW in May. It was 347MW in January, 865MW in February, and 1,949MW in March.
On the other hand, Bangladesh Rural Electrification Board (BREB) forecast the daily demand at 9,500MW in the peak season.
BPDB recorded the highest power generation at 15,648MW on April 19 last year.
Currently, the fuel crisis is resulting in a power generation shortage of about 5,000MW. The government is unable to import fuel as per the requirement as it does not have adequate funds.
State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resource Nasrul Hamid told The Daily Messenger, “Arranging money to ensure a smooth supply of primary fuel to power plants is a major challenge. But we hope we will be able to arrange the required funds.”
However, experts think meeting the peak season demand will be very difficult for the government as it is already facing a crisis of funds needed to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fuel oil.
Energy expert Prof Shamsul Alam said the government wants to phase out subsidies even in the agriculture sector, which will be a suicidal decision. “Electricity tariff for irrigation is equal to that of industries.”
He recommends the government go back to the previous power sector master plan, which had agriculture subsidy. Otherwise, food security would be under threat, he warned.
The government from 2026 will be able to import LNG from Qatar and Saudi Arabia at a cheap rate under a long-term agreement.
According to the Power Division, the peak electricity demand was 16,000MW in the last irrigation season in April 2023. At present, the total number of electricity connections for irrigation is 4,87,851, and there are 9,432 pending applications.
Mohammad Hossain, director general of Power Cell, told The Daily Messenger the projected demand for the upcoming season is not too high and is only 1,500MW more than that of the previous year.
“We had to go for load-shedding last season. It is going to be the same this year as well,” he said.
He also said, “We have been facing an economic crisis since the Russia-Ukraine war that started in February 2022. We have the experience of managing a crisis.”
Gas demand is expected to be 1,760mmcfd (maximum) and 1,540mmcfd (minimum) in the upcoming irrigation season. The furnace oil demand is likely to be 1,54,950 metric tonnes, and that of diesel 15,600 metric tonnes. According to the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, there is no shortage of furnace oil and diesel.
Senior Secretary of the Power Division Md Habibur Rahman said the supply of gas, furnace oil, and diesel needs to be increased to generate more power in the upcoming irrigation season.
Petrobangla officials said daily gas supply last month was more than 2,800 million cubic feet. In the previous month, about 3,000 million cubic feet of gas was supplied to the national grid every day.
The country’s both LNG terminals have a capacity of 1,000 million cubic feet per day. Normally, 800-1,000 million cubic feet of gas is supplied to the national grid from the terminals every day.
Due to the dollar crisis, the spot market has been supplying 600 million cubic feet of gas per day for several days. Due to maintenance, daily LNG supplies sometimes drop below 500 million cubic feet.
The import of LNG is not increasing, and even the supply of domestic gas to meet the shortfall cannot be increased soon. The present outstanding payment in the power and energy sectors is about $5 billion.
Replying to a question, Hamid said an initiative has been taken to clear a major portion of the outstanding payments in the power sector soon. The outstanding payments in the energy sector will also be cleared in phases soon, he added.
According to the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, 29 gas fields have been discovered in Bangladesh. Some, 2,140 million cubic feet of gas is being extracted daily from 113 wells in 21 gas fields. Up to 2,800 million cubic feet of gas per day was once extracted. Gas production is constantly decreasing.
Messenger/Disha
