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30 January 2025

FIGHTING BETWEEN JUNTA AND REBELS

China-brokered Myanmar peace deal mired in confusion

SALEEM SAMAD

Published: 08:00, 9 March 2024

China-brokered Myanmar peace deal mired in confusion

Photo : Messenger

The China-facilitated peace talks between the Myanmar military regime and the rebel alliance remains mired in confusion even after a week.
Amid secrecy about what was discussed, there has been confusion about what was agreed between the Myanmar junta and the Three Brotherhood Alliance at peace talks held in Kunming China last weekend.

There is even confusion about the date the talks were held. Originally these talks, the fourth in a series of Chinese-brokered northern Shan State peace talks between the junta and the Three Brotherhood Alliance were reported to have taken place from March 1 to 3, but more recent reports say the talks were held from February 29 to 1 March, reports Mizzima News.

Unconfirmed briefings claimed that the following had been agreed upon and discussed at the most recent round of talks: 1) All territory in northern Shan State taken by the Three Brotherhood Alliance will remain under their control; 2) China’s interests in Myanmar will be protected and neither the junta nor the Three Brotherhood Alliance will act in any way to undermine those interests; 3) The Myanmar National Democracy Alliance Army (MNDAA) will be the legitimate and official government of the Kokang Region occupied by rebel forces: 4) Neither the junta nor the Three Brotherhood Alliance will advance from areas under their control and buffer zones will be established between the two sides’ positions; and 4) The junta and Three Brotherhood Alliance will run customs together at Chinshwehaw border trade post in north Shan State, with the Junta taking 70 per cent of the customs duties paid and the MNDAA taking the remaining 30 per cent.

The junta spokesperson, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, did not divulge details about what had been discussed at the latest peace talks.

All he would say to foreign journalists in the capital Naypyidaw, is that they were working on a ceasefire and de-escalating the conflict; managing border trade zones; and maintaining law and order, all of which would stabilise and improve the economic situation for local people.
He said that China and Myanmar would work for stability in the border region and fight against any drug trafficking and cybercrimes in the region.

On the other hand, the Chinese government reiterated its call for the prompt implementation of the agreements by the Military Council and the Three Brotherhood Alliance, facilitated through China's mediation, reports Burma News International (BNI).

China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin emphasised China's desire for tranquillity in northern Myanmar and underscored the nation's active support in facilitating discussions among stakeholders to advance the peace process

China's brokered temporary ceasefire between the Military Council of Myanmar government and ethnic armed organisations in northern Myanmar was countered by United Nations agencies reporting ongoing battles, leading to Wang's response.

In response to reporters' questions, he provided a statement regarding the continued conflicts between the Military Council and the Three Brotherhood Alliance, despite China's involvement.

Wang further emphasised China's steadfast commitment to alleviating tensions among warring factions in Myanmar, advocating for the restraint of hostilities, and actively pushing for the tangible implementation of the agreements already reached.

However, there is much confusion over exactly what these agreements were and which members of the Brotherhood Alliance had signed off on any agreement at the China-hosted forum.

In reality, fighting has diminished only in areas under the control of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), a member of the three Brotherhood Alliance, while the Arakan Army (AA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) continue their operations at full strength.
The alliance is an ethnic armed group whose offensive since October 2023 has been a significant threat to the junta's power.

Lieutenant Colonel Tar Aik Kyaw, spokesperson for TNLA, did not deny having discussions with Chinese authorities but denied they had made any agreement with the Junta delegation.

Tar Bhone Kyaw of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), a member of the alliance, said they agreed to reopen border trade with China. But details of the share of border tariffs with China has yet to be finalised.

These circumstances have prompted questions regarding the effectiveness of the peace process in which China has intervened.

On January 11, 2024, with mediation from China, the Three Alliance Force and the National Solidarity and Peace-Making Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) under the military junta convened and publicly signed the Huygen ceasefire agreement in the presence of witnesses.

Following the cessation of hostilities in the Northern Shan region, the parties pledged to continue discussions and negotiations for the reopening of China-Myanmar trade routes. The goal of the agreement is to ensure stability and peace in the war-torn region and facilitate the restoration of communities affected by the conflict.
Hence, on February 29th and March 1st, the military junta and the Three Alliance Forces convened for the fourth time in Kunming, China. Representatives from both sides reviewed and discussed the implementation of the Huygens Agreement.

Messenger/Fameema