Photo: Collected
There were concerns about the potential challenges we might face in securing funds for the primary energy needed for power generation. Based on my assessment of our power sector planning, it appears that by the year 2023, we could be 90 percent reliant on imported energy. This implies that the expenditure on importing primary energy for power generation will escalate to USD 20 billion by then, compared to our current spending range of USD 10 billion to 12 billion.
Throughout the planning process, various stakeholders raised questions about the source of funds for this significant increase.
The decision to import was made without adequate contemplation or consideration of the prevailing realities. Factors such as the dynamics of the international market, the potential risks associated with availability and supply shortfalls, the vulnerability to price hikes, and the potential impact of challenging economic conditions were not taken into account.
Indeed, this significant dependency was intentionally incorporated into the plan. The rationale behind this decision was drawn from the energy sector models of countries such as Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, all of which operate with complete import dependence. However, what was not adequately considered is whether our economy possesses the same resilience as theirs. The oversight lies in neglecting the fact that just as an economy can thrive, it is equally susceptible to downturns.
Furthermore, the Perspective Plan 2041 for the country's power sector projected a 9 percent growth over a span of 20 years. This appears to be both overly ambitious and unrealistic in its expectations.
Presently the generation stood 15,000 MW of electricity, of which 6000 MW is gas-fired. Of this, 5000 MW is from our own gas. That means, energy is imported for 60 to 65 per cent of power production at present.
The undeniable reality is that we are compelled to import energy for power production. Achieving complete self-dependence in this domain is not feasible for us. When our gas production experienced a decline, we found ourselves compelled to transition towards import-dependent oil-fired power plants. This shift was not a matter of choice but a necessity, leading to the formulation of a special power act under unique circumstances. However, it was initially conceived as a temporary measure, intended to address the situation for a span of three to five years.
Simultaneously, it would have been prudent to focus on increasing our gas production during this period, thereby establishing a more sustainable and long-term solution to the energy challenges we faced.
In 2018 we began importing LNG. Perhaps that was necessary too. But the mistake we made was not to simultaneously pay attention to gas exploration on grounds that it would take time, and entirely turn to import-dependency. Over the past 20 years, for various reasons, Bangladesh did not turn to gas exploration.
In power production, we have three primary energy sources -- gas, coal and solar energy. Alongside the emergency measures taken to address the power deficit, if we used our own gas and coal, and also pay attention to solar power, then the situation would not have deteriorated so far.
The government from 2010-11 has been promoting solar power. It provided the private sector with certain benefits and concessions in this regard. Till date, over 40 projects have been approved, but this has only provided 500 MW of electricity. At the rate this is progressing, this 500 MW may reach 1000 MW in the days ahead. The bottom line is, the policy taken up by the government regarding solar power, has been of no use. The government wanted to carry this out through the private sector and provided them benefits too.
Since the matter of land is involved with solar power, it will yield no results if the responsibility is simply handed over to the private sector. The government's positive stance towards solar power is not enough. The government has an additional role to play here. It has to push the issue forward. Also, our national grid lacks the capacity to take power from solar power plants.
The government has a lot of fallow land and it has records of this land. The government must come forward to give the private sector land. Also, the government can hand over various abandoned or closed plants to the private entrepreneurs for solar power production.
The government can make it compulsory to have solar panels on the roofs of every school. It can have a policy so that large industrial establishments can hire out their factory rooftops to other companies for solar power generation. All these steps would make it possible to increase solar power production to 6000 MW by 2030.
Offshore gas exploration requires data. After the maritime boundary was determined, Bangladesh took initiative to run a survey. Tenders were invited and a reputed company was selected. The process had been transparent. But for some unknown reason, the ministry cancelled it. A fresh tender was called. The same company came first after the selection process. The tender wasn't cancelled, but left hanging. Everything has a timeline and that timeline expired. After that, a meaningless proposal was discussed on arranging a survey ship and carrying out the survey themselves. That too amounted to nothing. Time passed in this manner.
Our LNG import capacity is 7.2 million tonnes annually. We buy half of this under long-term agreement from Qatar and Oman. The remaining half we buy from the spot market. Qatar and Oman had urged us to buy the entire amount under the long-term agreement. We did not do so. In order to ensure steady supply, the standard practice of buying fuel from foreign countries is to buy the fuel for the overall basic demand under a long-term agreement.
The writer is the dean of Chemical and Materials Engineering Faculty at BUET
Messenger/Sun Yath
