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The deaths of Ibrahim Raisi and Hossein Amir Abdullahian will have a major impact on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was one of the main suppliers of money and weapons to armed groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain and Palestine. The big question for these armed groups is whether the new president will become as aggressive.
Israel and Western countries have been very unhappy about Iran's nuclear activities for several decades. Even Saudi Arabia, a major Sunni country known for being America's lapdog, is on the list. Raisi played a leading role in building up the nuclear programme, with little regard for the Western powers.
Raisi's death will affect not only the Middle East but also the geopolitics of Central Asia and Europe. During the war between Ukraine and Russia, Tehran supplied large quantities of drones and weapons to the Russian forces, and the question is beginning to be asked in many quarters. Tehran also played an important role in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan under Raisi's leadership.
He was seen as Khamenei's successor because of a long-standing understanding. He is a source of fear for Israeli leaders. Khamenei, aged 85, is almost ill. If an uncompromising leader like Raisi becomes the next supreme leader of Iran, Israel will not have a single word of peace. Israel also saw an example of this a few weeks ago. Iran forcefully launched a drone attack against Israel. Moreover, Israeli leaders feared Raisi even more than Khamenei, who constantly warned them.
Raisi ordered the execution of many political prisoners at the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988 as an advisor to the government. Raisi was nicknamed the "Butcher of Tehran" for executing hundreds of political prisoners. He then found himself under a travel ban from the United States.
Mr. Raisi has also drawn criticism from the United Nations and international human rights organisations. He has been a member of the Assembly of Experts since 2006. This assembly of experts is responsible for appointing and advising the country's top leaders. The fate of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian was not yet known on the evening of Sunday, May 19, after their helicopter crashed in north-west Iran. Nevertheless, a message of support and an offer of assistance were sent by Saudi Arabia to the Islamic Republic of Iran. This gesture reflects the climate of détente that the leader of the Sunni world and his Shiite rival have sought to maintain since the agreement reached in March 2023, against a backdrop of regional escalation following the war between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Following the official announcement of the deaths of the two leaders, other messages of condolence poured in from both Iran's traditional allies in the "axis of resistance" to Israel and its traditional Sunni rivals. These messages were devoid of alarmism. Their deaths are unlikely to change the Islamic Republic's foreign policy in the region: neither in its support for Hamas and its allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen nor in its desire to maintain détente with the Gulf States. Raisi has implemented the tough policies of his mentor, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to entrench clerical power, suppress opponents and take a hard line on foreign policy issues, such as nuclear negotiations with Washington to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
While widely seen as one of the leading candidates to succeed the 85-year-old Supreme Leader on his death, sources said Raisi's name was dropped from the list of potential successors around six months ago due to his declining popularity. Mr. Raisi's death has introduced "great uncertainty" into the succession, fanning rivalries in the hardline camp over who will succeed Mr. Khamenei as the country's supreme authority. The crash came after the United States and Iran reportedly held their latest quiet talks in Oman, aimed at increasing stability following open clashes between Iran and Israel.
When Mr. Raisi took office in 2021, he had virtually no foreign policy experience. Early on, he supported negotiations to restore US and Iranian compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal. He reaffirmed Iran's desire to move eastward, something that hardliners had long advocated. Raisi has identified two key priorities: improving relations with neighbouring countries and strengthening ties with Asian powers, notably China and Russia. His administration has made progress on both fronts, but has failed to revive the 2015 nuclear deal: Iran's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to unprecedented military and economic cooperation. Iran has become Russia's main military supporter, supplying it with more than 1,000 suicide drones from the Shahed series, as well as artillery and tanks.
The two countries have also forged new economic ties in the face of US sanctions. Russia has overtaken China as the biggest foreign investor in the Islamic Republic: Mr. Raisi has given priority to deepening ties with China, Iran's biggest trading partner and a veritable economic lifeline. In 2023, Mr. Raisi became the first Iranian leader to make an official state visit to Beijing in more than 20 years, signing 20 agreements that could be worth billions of dollars. In 2023, Iranian oil exports rose by 50%, a five-year high, to 1.29 million barrels a day. Under President Raisi, Iran has joined two economic blocs that have brought it closer to China and Russia. In July 2023, Iran was officially admitted as the ninth member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, an economic and security organisation led by China and Russia that also includes countries in Central and South Asia. In January 2024, Iran became a member of the BRICS bloc of emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Together, these five nations account for around a quarter of the global economy and more than 40% of the world's population. Saudi Arabia: Last March, Iran and its regional rival Saudi Arabia reached an agreement under the aegis of China to re-establish diplomatic relations, seven years after they broke off. The Islamic Republic and the Gulf Kingdom have affirmed their respect for the "sovereignty of States" and "non-interference in internal affairs".
For years, the two countries have been at loggerheads over regional conflicts, notably in Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan: Mr. Raisi took office just as the Taliban made major territorial gains in Afghanistan, a country with which Iran shares a 572-mile border. He welcomed the US withdrawal and adopted a policy of cautious engagement with the Sunni movement in the midst of chaos. He and other officials have urged the Taliban to form a government that reflects Afghanistan's political, religious and ethnic diversity. Iran has not officially recognised the Taliban regime, although it has dealt with Kabul on a day-to-day basis. Border clashes have occasionally erupted, but the two countries have avoided open conflict despite a long-running dispute over water rights: Raisi's government has failed to resuscitate the 2015 nuclear deal with the world's six major powers: Britain, China, Germany, France, Russia and the US. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and reimposed US sanctions.
The Biden administration launched a diplomatic initiative in April 2021 under the aegis of the European Union, but it failed in August 2022 when Tehran refused the final conditions. The lifting of US sanctions would have been a boon for the Iranian economy. But Mr Raisi's government has appeared to abandon the prospect of improved relations with the West as Tehran increasingly turns to China and Russia for trade and military ties. Iran has exceeded the essential limits of its nuclear activities and has limited access to its facilities for UN inspectors.
In a statement, the State Department offered its "official condolences" for the deaths. Iran and the United States have not had official diplomatic relations since April 7, 1980. In the absence of diplomatic or consular relations between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Swiss government, acting through its embassy in Tehran, has acted as the United States' protecting power in Iran since May 21, 1980. The death of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian in a mysterious helicopter crash will affect world politics; that's what's most talked about at the moment. Analysts believe that the deaths of these two influential geopolitical leaders could change the political equation in the Middle East. But will Israel benefit from his death?
The writer is a Geneva-based private banking compliance security expert, columnist and poet.
Messenger/Fameema
