The geopolitical context will significantly influence the evolution of politics

International geopolitics is at a critical juncture. The world has seen the highest number of military conflicts since the Cold War. This increase has been felt on a global scale and has significantly affected international relations on every continent. Two major conflicts will dominate this period: the ongoing war in Ukraine, the result of Russian aggression, and the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East. The end of these conflicts does not seem imminent, but there are signs of possible diplomatic discussions and the first ceasefire talks in 2024.

International pressure for a two-state solution in the Middle East is growing, particularly from Arab countries, supported by China and Russia. On the other hand, Russia's unquenchable ambition to completely subjugate Ukraine will threaten the regional stability of the European continent. A reduction in Western military aid and financial support to Kiev could encourage Moscow to continue its territorial expansion this year.

Even possible diplomatic talks on a two-state solution in the Middle East will not improve the dire humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip, and the Palestinians face the daunting task of rebuilding their country in the years ahead. After all, 2023 saw a horrific episode of ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh, and almost 120,000 Armenians were displaced by Azerbaijan's military actions in the ethnic Armenian enclave.

However, the possible normalisation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan this year could represent a rare positive development in geopolitics, beneficial for international trade routes, in particular the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which runs through Iran and Central Asia to Russia. However, the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) project has been suspended due to military tensions in the Gulf following the conflict between Israel and Hamas and the disruption of the Bab-al-Mandeb global choke point in the Red Sea. In addition, China and Russia are likely to open a third front in the Indo-Pacific region to challenge the influence and credibility of the United States, particularly in the run-up to the US presidential election.

Russia will continue to supply North Korea with rockets and satellites in exchange for munitions needed in the war against Ukraine. At the same time, China is complicating the geopolitical situation by intensifying military tensions in the South and East China Seas. This complex context could lead to a "Cold War 2.0" scenario between the United States, China and Russia, where the risk of direct military conflict is minimal.

The geopolitical context will significantly influence the evolution of politics, economics, technology and governance, international norms, and reshape global partnerships and alliances in 2024. In this context, strategically positioned between the conflicting interests of the United States, China and Russia, India appears to be one of the main potential beneficiaries of this geopolitical scenario.

After the 2024 elections, India is likely to focus more on national and regional stability. But Narendra Modi's first slap from Bangladesh, despite his efforts, he could not keep the democracy-loving Bangladeshis under control. But in terms of regional stability, Sheikh Hasina's flight and the refuge of dictators on Indian soil have created a great divide between India and Bangladesh. India's big brother behaviour is not at all appreciated by the Bangladeshis, who hate having to look after India's interests.

India is poised to become a destination of choice for reoriented international capital, investment in new technologies and strengthened global and regional partnerships, against a backdrop of disrupted international supply chains and mutual efforts to decouple or mitigate risks between the US and China. The predictability and stability of India's political leadership will strengthen its position in increased engagement with the West and within structures such as the BRICS and the G20.

India could, however, be confronted this year with risks related to terrorism and climate. Countries such as Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil and Turkey are poised to increase their presence on the world stage, and several of these influential states are once again located in the South.

The current division in the international system and the irreversible rift between the United States and China, which is about to disrupt the global economy, trade and supply chain chokepoints. Important areas to watch are the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, the Black Sea, the Taiwan Strait, the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal.

In addition, the geopolitical alignment of the middle powers between the United States and China will compromise the coordination of international organisations and channels, with neither power adopting a clear position. Relations between the major Asian powers, particularly China and India, will take on greater geopolitical and geo-economic importance. The strategic alignment of China and Russia in geopolitical terms and the rise of these two powers in opposition to the strategic approach of the United States in the Indo-Pacific region will undoubtedly reduce the geopolitical importance of Europe.

Vladimir Putin claims that Ukraine wants to destroy the integrity and stability of Russia. He has threatened an "appropriate response". Which way is the wind blowing in the Ukraine-Russia war zone? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invaded Russia by crossing the border. The Ukrainian army claimed to have occupied an area of around 1,000 square kilometers in the Kursk region of western Russia by attacking it earlier this month.On the other hand, the way the Kremlin initially reacted to the attack made it clear that the Ukrainian attack was unexpected for it.

The attack was hailed as a major success by Ukraine and several Western countries, including the United States. By accepting the de facto military disaster at Kursk, Russian President Vladimir Putin says that Ukraine is trying to destroy Russia's integrity and stability. He has threatened to give an "appropriate response" soon. In particular, Russia's recent setback with the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil by Israel is due to the fact that, as in Iran, the weakness of the Russian intelligence service has been revealed. Most of the military forces present on the border were conscripts who did not have the appropriate weapons. As a result, they either fled the Ukrainian ambush or were captured by the enemy.

Moreover, since the start of the war, the image of the infinite power of the "Red" army and the "strong man" image that Putin had maintained have been somewhat eroded.On the other hand, this success was also necessary for Zelensky's army, which had not achieved any significant success against the Kremlin in the last two and a half years.

According to experts, Zelensky probably planned the coup with the possibility of political change in America in mind. He knows full well that if Republican candidate Trump wins the presidential election in November, it will be difficult for them to continue the war against Russia. While praising Putin, he has made clear his position on cutting off all aid to Ukraine. But for now, Zelensky is somewhat relieved by this concern, as the Biden administration has already announced $125 million in military aid.

The question is why Ukraine has taken this risk. Apart from reducing Russian pressure on the army in the border region, the "asset" of Kursk is undoubtedly at stake in the forthcoming ceasefire and peace treaty negotiations. But is it possible for them to occupy the enemy's territory on a long-term basis, as Russia is doing? Moreover, to force Russia to sign a peace treaty, the Kremlin would have to exert military pressure, which is not possible with its limited forces.

Consequently, if Ukraine loses any more ground on its own territory, it cannot be ruled out that it will fall into its own trap. Let's see how Russia responds to the Ukrainian 'provocation' of A-Hen. But fears are mounting that something is about to change in the war equation, and that change may not be peaceful.

The writer is a Geneva-based private banking compliance security expert, columnist and poet.