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India shares more cultural and social ties with the countries of South Asia than China. Yet anti-India sentiment is stronger in the region than anti-China sentiment. South Asians know and understand India better than China.
Expectations of India are therefore naturally higher. Expectations of good behaviour and fairness are higher for India than for China, and when India disappoints, the reactions are just as harsh. As South Asian countries become more familiar with China and the Chinese, anti-Chinese sentiment will also increase.
Anti-Indian sentiment is a reality that Indian diplomats have to manage well. South Asian leaders can use this sentiment for political ends, but they are also aware of the dangers of going too far. As far as anti-Chinese sentiment is concerned, on the other hand, while there may not be much political capital to be made from it at present in South Asia, this also means that it will be harder to correct or erase once it has gained momentum.
In fact, China's aggressive foreign policy—its 'wolf warrior' diplomacy, which involves pressuring countries to take sides against the US or India, and its tendency to use economic coercion to achieve its goals—has aggravated anti-Chinese sentiment around the world. This will eventually happen in South Asia too. China undoubtedly exerts a certain influence on some of the Maldives' political class, but this does not mean that it enjoys great popularity among the population. If it does, it is because of the factors mentioned above. In any case, this popularity has not been sufficient for pro-Chinese governments to remain in power continuously or for Maldivian leaders, even under these conditions, not to realise that geography dictates that India, not China, is their immediate source of relief in the event of a crisis.
Both India and China have relied on Buddhism in their lobbying efforts in Sri Lanka. The Chinese advantage in this area is the huge amount of resources they can bring to bear on their efforts. They are also much more consistent in their efforts than India. The number of visits by Sri Lankan Buddhist monks to China has increased and support has been given to Buddhist organisations based in Sri Lanka. This support includes funding for charitable organisations and assistance for a number of public service projects.
China has launched a number of organisations to consolidate its claim to leadership of the global Buddhist movement and has even facilitated visits by Sri Lankan monks to ancient Buddhist sites in Pakistan. The aim, of course, is to undermine India's influence and ensure that the Tibetan Buddhist leader, the Dalai Lama, does not have a platform in other countries. Hong Kong-listed United Energy Group (UEG) has made a gas discovery in southern Pakistan that opens up a new geological play. United Energy Pakistan, Bermuda-registered UEG's upstream subsidiary, is one of the major hydrocarbon producers in the country.
In India, Confucius Institutes were monitored by the Indian government long before Western governments and universities realised that these organisations were spreading propaganda for the Chinese party-state and were involved in suppressing freedom of expression. Indians were obviously much less sensitive than Westerners to Chinese propaganda, given the history of relations between India and China, affected by the 1962 conflict.
Following the end of the Qing Dynasty, the 13th Dalai Lama declared the independence of Tibet in 1913. This independence was contested by the Chinese Government in Beijing, who in October 1950, invaded Tibet and seized most of its territory in a military campaign of about two weeks. The Dalai Lama is not an Indian citizen although he has described himself as a "son of India."
He holds an Indian Identity Certificate, which is a passport-like travel document issued by the Government of India. The certificate allows Tibetans to obtain visas for travel abroad. Fearing that the Chinese government would kill him, the Dalai Lama fled from Tibet to India with thousands of followers, where he was welcomed by Indian Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru. Nehru gave him permission to form The Tibetan Government in exile in Dharamsala in India. Friends can sometimes become a burden. Sheikh Hasina, who has taken refuge in India since her forced departure from Bangladesh on August 5. It’s time for India to do some introspection regarding its regional policy, Delhi needs to look at whether it has adequately taken on board the perspectives of its regional partners.
And with the Galwan confrontation in eastern Ladakh in 2020, a new generation of Indians has been sensitised to the problems of bilateral relations and increasingly views China unfavourably. On the whole, despite the initial media hype, it is difficult to say with any certainty that the Confucius Institutes have actually succeeded in significantly strengthening China's soft power in South Asia. South Asians are simply more oriented towards the West in terms of language and educational and professional opportunities than they are towards China. China's footprint in South Asia has grown remarkably over the past decade. It has financed and implemented a number of infrastructure projects, many as part of the 'Belt and Road' initiative, in the region. Much has been written about the growing public distrust of Chinese projects due to unpaid debts that have led to economic crises.
However, China's commitment to the people of South Asia has gone largely unnoticed. A large number of young people from South Asia are learning Mandarin and going to China for higher education. China offers hundreds of scholarships to South Asian students and academics. On the religious front too, Beijing has encouraged Buddhist diplomacy and supported trips by Sri Lankan Buddhist monks, for example, to Buddhist sites in China and even to ancient sites in Pakistan.
On 4 October 1975, China officially established diplomatic relations with Bangladesh. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations, the two sides have always understood and supported each other on issues involving fundamental interests and major concerns.The friendly cooperative relations between the two countries have developed in a healthy and harmonious manner. The two sides have carried out fruitful cooperation in various fields such as politics, the economy, the military and culture. The two countries have maintained close coordination and collaboration in regional and international affairs.
Exchanges between the two countries have been close at all levels, and political mutual trust has been strengthened. In October 2016, President Xi Jinping visited Bangladesh and elevated Bangladesh-China relations to a strategic cooperative partnership. This historic visit paved the way for the development of bilateral relations. In July 2019, Former Prime Minister Hasina officially visited China and participated in the 13th Davos Summer Forum. President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Keqiang and Li Zhanshu, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China, met with her, respectively.
In May 2020, President Xi Jinping called Prime Minister Hasina at her request. On 17 March 2021, President Xi Jinping delivered a video address on the occasion of the commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the birth of the "father of the nation," Bangabondhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and the celebration of the 50th anniversary of Bangladesh's independence. On 1 July 2021, Sheikh Hasina, Prime Minister of Bangladesh and President of the People's League, sent a congratulatory video to mark the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CCP. On the eve of International Children's Day in 2023, President Xi Jinping responded to a Bangladeshi child, Alifa Chin, and encouraged her to study hard, pursue her dream and advance the traditional friendship between China and Bangladesh. Incredibly, Hasina's visit to China before the fall of the government and her flight to India were far from pleasant.
The two countries have had active exchanges between the parties and between military personnel. Trade cooperation has produced fruitful results and the volume of bilateral trade has increased rapidly. The projects undertaken by the Chinese side have progressed smoothly. China is Bangladesh's largest trading partner and Bangladesh is China's third largest trading partner in South Asia. Recently, in response to the appeal of Dr Muhammad Yunus, Chinese solar panel manufacturers wanted to set up factories in Bangladesh. The Chinese government is taking the issue very seriously.
As an immediate neighbour and long-standing economic partner, Nepal's political, economic and security relations with China are multifaceted. From a geopolitical perspective, Nepal's foreign policy has traditionally focused on India and China.
However, the growing interest of the United States in the region could place the Himalayan nation in a triple situation of pressure and attraction. In line with its principles of non-alignment, Nepal should carefully orient its foreign policy so that its relations with China do not involve it in any way in great power rivalry. On the contrary, Nepal can use its geostrategic position to derive economic benefits from all three countries—India, China and the United States.
While Nepal must try to push China to deliver on its promises, it must also play a balancing act with two of China's rivals, India and the United States.
As Nepal's main trade and development partner, India would be the most likely source of FDI, particularly in the hydropower sector, if Chinese investors feel that their return on investment is not guaranteed or sufficient. US attention to Nepal will continue to include support in areas such as democracy, health, education and governance rather than large-scale commercial projects, given Nepal's geostrategic importance to US strategy in the Indo-Pacific region.
With the relationship between the United States and India growing by the day, the interests of both countries are aligned to counter Chinese influence in Nepal.
This is where Nepal needs to be careful. To guarantee its strategic autonomy, Nepal should engage politically and economically with all three countries without trying to play one country off against the other. While easy access to the sea will allow India to maintain its supremacy in Nepal's commercial sector, Kathmandu should extend its diplomatic efforts to attract FDI beyond its immediate neighbourhood to reduce its overdependence on its southern neighbour. The United States has asked Bangladesh to continue working with ASEAN, an alliance of Southeast Asian countries, to resolve the Rohingya crisis. While India may not be able to keep pace with Pakistan, reviving SAARC would make sense for India.
The writer is a Geneva-based private banking compliance security expert, columnist and poet.
Messenger/Disha
