Photo : Messenger
One year since Gaza conflict began! As US ally Israel lashes out at Iranian proxies, a perpetual multi-front conflict that threatens to set the whole region ablaze takes shape.
A year after Hamas militants launched a devastating assault from Gaza, killing 1,200 Israelis, the conflict has spiralled into a multi-front conflict that threatens to engulf the Middle East in what some fear could become a new "forever war."
The violence escalated early on 24 September 2024 as Israel launched "limited ground incursions" into southern Lebanon, targeting infrastructure belonging to the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. This followed a week of air strikes that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrullah and displaced an estimated 1 million of Lebanon's 5.8 million population.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bellicose rhetoric has added further fuel to the fire, suggesting in a video message on 30 September 2024 potential military action against Iran, which leads to the anti-Israel "Axis of Resistance" and even regime change in Tehran. His statements were applauded by Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law and former Middle East policy architect, who exhorted Israel in a lengthy social media post to "finish the job."
Iran wasted no time in responding to the threats, launching a barrage of 181 ballistic missiles at Israeli military targets within 24 hours. The Iranian mission to the United Nations said that any further Israeli aggression would be met with a "devastating response". Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian later addressed Netanyahu directly, warning on X: "This is only a corner of our power. Do not enter into a conflict with Iran."
Netanyahu promptly retorted, claiming Iran had "made a big mistake" and would "have to pay for it".
This hot-tempered back-and-forth exposes a conflict caught in a relentless cycle of escalation. Each time international pressure mounts for a ceasefire in Gaza, Israel ramps up its military activities against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, shifting diplomatic efforts towards preventing a broader regional war.
"Several times during this war, Israel has tried to provoke, essentially, a war between the US and Iran," said Michael Young, senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut. The involved parties find themselves "locked in" to a pattern whereby each seeks to gain "escalation dominance", he said, aiming to "escalate to levels that the other side cannot."
The current cycle of violence can be traced back to early April 2023, when Israel, under pressure from Washington to avoid mass civilian casualties in Rafah, targeted Iran's embassy complex in Damascus, killing two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals. After intense negotiations via Arab nations aimed at avoiding a widening conflict, Iran launched a largely performative response against Israel in the form of waves of slow-moving drones and cruise missiles, most of which were easily intercepted.
Then in late July 2024, as diplomatic momentum again built for a phased resolution to the Gaza conflict, Israel escalated further by assassinating both Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah's military chief, and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on successive days. Haniyeh's killing was particularly provocative, occurring mere hours after Iran's new president was sworn in and under the noses of Iranian security services.
A protester raises a Palestinian flag and a poster bearing pictures of slain Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh (left) and Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah in Rabat on September 28, 2024.
Rather than pursuing a backroom de-escalation deal with Tehran, the US reinforced its military presence in the region, deploying additional air, land, and sea forces. This show of strength served as a warning to Iran, which opted to hold back rather than retaliate.
The most recent escalation began last month with the detonation of devices used by Hezbollah operatives, culminating in the assassination of Nasrullah in a targeted bombing that destroyed an entire residential block in southern Beirut on September 27, 2024. Analysts who spoke to This Week in Asia said they had predicted Iran's increased involvement, despite its reluctance, given the rising threat of Israeli air strikes.
"A significant portion of the US political establishment loathes Iran" and wants Israel to attack it, said Monica Marks, a professor of Middle Eastern politics at New York University Abu Dhabi.
A protester in Los Angeles holds a poster calling for the US to end weapons shipments to Israel on September 24, 2024. US President Joe Biden "is saying he wants regional de-escalation whilst delivering a seemingly endless stream of weapons and political cover to Israel", she said.
"So, there is a real likelihood that Israel could escalate this into not only a ground invasion of Lebanon, but a series of more direct military attacks on Iran."
Netanyahu was "seizing the opportunity" to act before November's presidential election in the US, journalist Marks added.
Jonathan Panikoff, a former US deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East, said that Tehran would prefer to stay out of the Hezbollah-Israel conflict unless directly attacked.
It would appear Iran’s last missile strikes against Israel were designed to convey a different message than those in April, 2024.
This time, Iran offered no advanced warnings through Arab intermediaries, with US officials only receiving alerts hours before the missile launches. In contrast to the slower drones and subsonic missiles used earlier, Iran unleashed supersonic ballistic missiles against military targets in Israel, reducing the window for interception by both Israeli and US forces.
Although Iran aimed at specific military installations to avoid civilian casualties, its missile salvo was clearly a retaliation for the recent assassinations of key figures, including Nasrullah, Haniyeh, and Iranian commanders.
Threat of all-out war
Regardless of what happens next between Israel and Iran, the Netanyahu administration is expected to intensify its military campaign against Hezbollah. The primary objective is to pressure the militant group into withdrawing its forces from the border, allowing the 70,000 or so Israeli citizens who were evacuated from the surrounding area a year ago to return home.
Failure to comply could lead Israel to reinstate the buffer zone in southern Lebanon that it previously occupied from 1985 to 2000. However, Israel's ambitions extend beyond merely securing its northern border; officials aim to "fundamentally alter the threat" posed by Hezbollah, Panikoff said, as many "view this as the right time" to take advantage of the opportunity.
Should the conflict escalate, Hezbollah will likely attempt to inflict "as much damage on Israel as possible", he said. So far, the group has strategically targeted military installations deep within Israel, with its drones and missiles reaching as far south as Haifa, Tel Aviv, and Jerusalem, while mostly avoiding civilian population zones.
Both Israel and Hezbollah "are to a certain extent trying to avoid the worst", Carnegie's Young said. "The Israeli calculation is that Hezbollah would be willing to absorb its attacks, and not force Israel to embark on a ground war," he said. But if tensions continue to rise, "a full-scale war leading to significant destruction and loss of life in both Israel and Lebanon is likely," Panikoff warned.
However, he said "a full-scale war could probably be averted" if Hezbollah relocated its Radwan special forces units away from the border, so they were no longer threatening Israeli towns with missile launches. Panikoff said that Hezbollah's insistence on tying its withdrawal to the cessation of Israeli military operations in Gaza was "disconnected from any strategic reality". The group's leadership likely prefers to avoid a full-blown war with Israel, he said.
No American president today wants to enter into a war with Iran with a question mark.
All the analysts interviewed by This Week in Asia agreed that both US presidential candidates would be keen to sidestep such a conflict. "No American president today wants to enter into a war with Iran," Young said. "Certainly, the American public would not back such a war."
Similarly, Iran cannot afford to allow "Lebanon to be destroyed and Hezbollah to be greatly weakened," as this would equate to the loss of another regional asset after seeing Hamas "severely weakened in Gaza".
The Palestinian death toll in Gaza has surpassed 41,600 since the conflict began, according to the enclave's Hamas-run health ministry.
Tehran's strategic calculus will also be influenced by its recent overtures to diplomatically re-engage with the West.
In a speech to the UN General Assembly on September 24, 2024, President Pezeshkian expressed Iran's readiness to negotiate with the remaining participants of the 2015 nuclear deal, which aimed to limit Tehran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.
The Trump administration's withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 as part of a strategy of "maximum pressure" prompted Iran to expand its uranium enrichment and amass near-weapons-grade material. Israel, staunchly opposed to the JCPOA, is determined to prevent any new agreement that might allow the US to refocus its geopolitical priorities on countering China and Russia.
"To a certain extent", both Iran and Israel "are playing the US", Young said, as renewed Iranian dialogue with Washington could lead to a revival of the nuclear deal, particularly if Kamala Harris were to win the presidency. Even Trump, much preferred by Netanyahu, surprised many by suggesting on September 26, 2024, that the US has "to make a deal" with Iran to avoid dire consequences.
This is a scenario that Israel "at all costs wants to prevent", as it aims to maintain its "hegemonic power" in the Middle East, Young said. Estimates from Western think tanks suggest Israel has around 90 nuclear warheads, though it routinely denies possessing any.
Analysts say the escalating conflict in the Middle East is compounded by a lack of a coherent strategic vision among the combatants.
"Israel does not have a strategy. It has the tactical goal of neutralising its enemies, but not a wider strategy involving a strategic and diplomatic vision," said Shaiel Ben-Ephraim, an Israeli analyst specialising in the Middle East peace process.
Meanwhile, Hamas, under its new leader Yahya Sinwar, is pushing for escalation "so it will remove the Israel Defence Forces' chokehold" on Gaza, he said.
Unless Israel's tactical military victories are paired with a longer-term political strategy that involves creating a Palestinian state, "you can rest assured that violent resistance against Israel, likely including terrorism, will continue", said Marks, the politics professor.
This could manifest through revitalised factions of Hamas and Hezbollah or new groups yet to emerge, she said.
Young agreed, predicting that the conflict in Gaza will endure as "the Israelis are going to try to maintain a presence".
He foresees a future where "the Palestinians will revolt" again, replicating past intifadas.
The writer is a freedom fighter who writes on politics and international issues.
Messenger/Disha
