Photo: Messenger
Donald Trump’s return to the presidency introduces a complex and contentious path forward for the U.S. and its political landscape. Having won a divisive race against Kamala Harris, Trump plans to implement a highly conservative agenda that could reshape various aspects of American governance and civil liberties. Major objectives include rolling back environmental regulations, enforcing stricter immigration policies through large-scale deportations, and curtailing LGBTQ+ rights, particularly in education and healthcare. Trump’s proposed economic plans—such as imposing tariffs on foreign goods—may satisfy protectionist objectives but carry risks of economic downturn, as some economists warn of potential recessions tied to such policies.
Trump’s influence could also impact U.S. foreign relations. He has hinted at re-evaluating longstanding alliances, such as NATO, and possibly reducing American involvement in international organisations, which could shift global power balances. Meanwhile, his political approach is anticipated to be marked by a desire for “retribution” against perceived opponents, including members of the media, political adversaries, and former officials. This raises concerns about how his administration may use governmental powers, particularly as some checks on presidential authority have weakened.
Republican control of the Senate facilitates this agenda, allowing for quicker confirmations of judicial and cabinet appointments that align with Trump’s policies. With allies in the legislature, his administration could enact rapid changes, setting the stage for a more conservative judiciary and governance style that challenges norms established under previous administrations.
In essence, the next four years may see accelerated policy shifts with both domestic and international repercussions. Whether the political opposition, civil society, or the judiciary will counterbalance these moves remains an open question.
Donald Trump return to power, the U.S. and the world would likely see a significant shift in several key areas. Based on his first term’s policies and current rhetoric, here are some probable impacts:
Foreign Policy Realignment
Isolationist Tendencies: Trump’s “America First” agenda emphasised a more isolationist foreign policy, pulling back from some traditional alliances and favouring bilateral over multilateral arrangements. A return to this approach might mean reduced U.S. engagement in global institutions, such as the UN, NATO, and WHO.
China and Trade: Trump’s tough stance on China is likely to persist, potentially with even stricter tariffs, increased tech restrictions, and a continuation of the trade war. This could intensify economic tensions and push the global economy toward decoupling the U.S. and Chinese markets.
Middle East Policy: Trump’s policies often favoured a strong alliance with Israel and Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia. He would likely continue these alliances, possibly undermining relations with Iran and reshaping diplomatic dynamics in the region.
Climate Policy Rollbacks
Climate Agreements: Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement during his first term. If he returns to office, he may scale back or pull out of climate accords, as well as loosen environmental regulations. This would likely diminish the global momentum on climate action, with possible ripple effects as other nations reevaluate their commitments.
Energy Policy: Trump has consistently promoted fossil fuels, favouring deregulation to support the oil, coal, and natural gas sectors. His return could bolster traditional energy industries while stalling the transition toward renewable energy in the U.S., affecting global markets and emissions targets.
Economic Impacts and Trade Dynamics
Trade Protectionism: Trump has shown a tendency toward protectionist policies, which could lead to increased tariffs on imports. This could disrupt supply chains, strain relations with the European Union, Canada, and Mexico, and spark reciprocal trade measures.
Global Financial Markets: Markets generally respond strongly to Trump’s policies and public statements. A second Trump term could introduce volatility in global markets due to unpredictable tariff decisions and changes in regulatory policy.
Impact on NATO and U.S. Allies
NATO Relations: Trump has been openly critical of NATO, questioning its relevance and pushing for members to meet financial commitments. A potential second term might strain NATO relations further, creating uncertainty for European allies and emboldening rival powers like Russia.
Asia-Pacific Alliances: Trump’s policies in Asia largely aimed at countering China, but his methods (e.g., tariffs, unpredictability in trade) caused unease among allies like Japan and South Korea. A Trump return could see a return to these policies, possibly intensifying U.S.-China tensions and forcing regional allies to reconsider their security alignments.
Immigration Policies and Global Mobility
Tighter Immigration Policies: Trump’s administration previously imposed strict immigration policies, impacting refugees, asylum seekers, and immigrants in general. A return to these policies could reduce immigration rates, influence global labour mobility, and affect the demographics of the U.S.
International Relations Over Migration: Stricter policies could also strain relations with countries that are key sources of migration, including Mexico and Central American nations. Increased enforcement at borders and policies on deportation could influence cross-border cooperation on security, trade, and regional stability.
Populism and Global Political Influence
Inspiration for Right-Wing Movements: Trump’s brand of populism has inspired similar movements globally, which may gain momentum if he returns. Leaders in Brazil, Hungary, Poland, and other nations have mirrored aspects of his rhetoric and approach. His return might further embolden populist and nationalist movements around the world.
Undermining Democratic Norms: Trump has often criticised the media and judiciary and cast doubt on election integrity. His return could set a precedent for other leaders to challenge or undermine democratic institutions, especially in countries where democracy is more fragile.
Global Health Policy and Pandemic Preparedness
Global Health Response: Trump’s handling of COVID-19, including withdrawing from the WHO (though later reversed by Biden), suggested a skepticism toward global health organizations. His return could impact the U.S.’s role in future pandemic preparedness and its funding to international health programs, potentially leading to less coordinated global responses to health crises.
Potential Shift in Technology and Cybersecurity
Cybersecurity and 5G Concerns: Trump emphasised restricting China’s influence in tech (such as with Huawei). A renewed focus on these issues could further divide global tech infrastructure into Western and Chinese spheres, influencing telecommunications and cybersecurity.
Tech Regulation and social media: Trump has been a vocal critic of tech giants, especially those perceived as censoring conservative voices. His administration might advocate for looser regulations on conservative media platforms, potentially impacting the global landscape of tech and digital rights.
A second Trump term would likely lead to a shift back to a more inward-looking U.S. foreign policy, coupled with intensified trade conflicts, a rollback on climate commitments, and impacts on global alliances. Such changes could potentially embolden similar political movements around the world, reshape alliances, and slow down international progress on issues like climate change and health security. The world would likely face greater polarisation, unpredictability in trade and international relations, and a potential recalibration of global power dynamics, especially with China and Russia.
The writer is a Geneva-based private banking compliance security expert, columnist and poet.
Messenger/Fameema
